Jacques Chester defends that Shared Hosting is doomed. I actually agree with his points: Manpower for administration server is becoming more expensive and hardware incredibly cheaper! So at some point, it would be cheaper to buy a VPS than a Shared Hosting account. And he has some pretty graphs to show that off.
He also refers to two examples of each kind of hosting and by coincidence (or not), I have one account in each of them( Dreamhost and Slicehost). And I use them for different reasons. I run a VPS on slicehost to run all the non-LAMP I have: Django and some non-web Python scripts. In Dreamhost I have the regular Wordpress blogs, some CMSs, a lot of backups (since they give me 200+ GB for storage) and also easy-to-configure SVN repositories.
This is why I think Shared Hosting will survive: A lot of people would gladly pay for someone to make all the admin-fu needed to keep their website running without a problem. They just want a write-and-upload workflow (or even something like Heroku). And they will want it to be scalable, but that’s another issue.
And I believe Shared Hosting will also move to another areas, like backups or syncing (somewhat like Apple’s Me.com), that I use through webdav in Dreamhost, to host SVN, Git or your favorite version control repositories (like BeansTalkApp) , to some online shared folders for office documents ( like Office Workspace or GoogleDocs) or even to some kind of online sharing I’m not thinking of right now.
Sure many developers will migrate since for a cheaper price will get more control over their stuff, but large-storage and other benefits from shared hosting will still hold a large slice of the pie.