Alcides Fonseca

I’ve called November 2025 the November inflection point because that was when GPT-5.1 and Opus 4.5, combined with their respective coding agent harnesses, got good—good enough that we’ve spent the last six months adapting to agent systems that can reliably get useful work done.
I think April 2026 is a new inflection point where the revenue implications of this have started to land, to the benefit of the frontier AI labs and with material impacts on the budgets of large companies.
We’ll know for sure how real this moment is when the S-1 documents for the upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs give us some real, audited numbers to get our teeth into.

— Simon Willison in I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

What if AI is more expensive than junior developers? Everything stays the same, but AI companies go bankrupt and the AI bubble bursts much earlier than expected.

Is this scenario so crazy? Simon spends ~2000$ per month, which is a reasonable cost of a junior developer in Portugal or another near-shore country. Now I’m sure he is more productive with those tokens than he would with a junior developer. In fact, he would be less productive given the cost of training. But developers can leave anytime, and it is a good idea to train new productive developers.

Of course LLM providers do not want the AI bubble to burst. To avoid it, they can just reduce infrastructure and training costs. No CEO will do that at the risk of losing the monopoly race to their competitors. So it’s a race to the bottom, aiming to become the last survivor. I wonder if this has happened in the past, and what was the role of nationalization in the process….

I remember the dark old times where IE6 was the default browser everywhere. Because of that dominance, developers focused solely on the IE substandard of JS/ActiveX/JavaApplet, leaving Linux and Mac users behind. Not long ago, you were required IE to submit your taxes. That has changed: Now you are required Chrome or Edge. As a Safari user, I find myself having to have an installed Chrome to access unsupported websites.

This week, MS announced they would be dropping their own rendered (EdgeHTML, a fork of Trident) on their current browser Edge and they will be using Chrome’s Blink (itself a fork of Webkit). So now the major browsers are:

• Edge (Webkit/Blink)
• Chrome (Webkit/Blink)
• Firefox (Quantum Render, replacing Gecko)
• Safari (Webkit)

Except for the tiny differences between vanilla Webkit and Blink, almost all the web uses the same renderer. This is the same monopoly Trident (IE5/6) had more than 10 years ago! And the sole fighter for a diverse web is the same browser and team that fought then: Mozilla Firefox! And this is not by chance: Mozilla’s Foundation is all about diversity and open standards. Just check their funded research projects to see that they put their money where their mouth is.

If it weren’t for Firefox, I believe Chrome would never had the success it had. Now Chrome’s the one that’s monopolising the web, and we need Firefox to be an alternative that will allow the NextBrowser™ to replace Chrome in 10 years.

I’ve been using Firefox as my main browser for a while now, and I can heartily recommend it. You should try it (and maybe talk to your relatives about it at Christmas). At this point, which browser you use no longer feels like it’s just about personal choice—it feels part of something bigger; it’s about the shape of the web we want.

— Jeremy Keith